The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) is projecting that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 5.4 percent in 2025 on the back of the 3.4 percent 2024 growth.
This according to the policy think tank is based on the year-on-year impact of the economic policies of the Tinubu administration since 2023.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Niyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that Nigeria will again outperformed the 2024 projections by global financial entities this year.
It said: “We have reviewed Nigeria’s 2025 GDP projections by the same entities. In collating their projections for GDP 2025, we observed that there’s a threshold difference between projections by global bodies and domestic entities.
“So, while IMF projected a lowly 3.2 percent real GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025 the World Bank forecasted that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.5 per cent in 2025. PwC also made projection within this narrow range, projecting a 3.3 percent GDP growth in 2025.
“These projections are in stark contrast with those of the CBN and Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company. The CBN projected that the economy will expand by 4.17 percent this year while the Financial Derivative Company has projected a potential 6 percent GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025.
“From our standpoint, it appears the global institutions have a deficient understanding of the dynamics of the ongoing reforms being superintended by the Tinubu’s administration.
“What has become evident in Nigeria’s economic change reality is the wholesome transmutation from a handout, populist model to a market driven economic model, though, there still some vestiges of the old model in some segments of the economy but we can submit that the reforms have, in many ways released the economy from the stranglehold of growth constraints like price control brought on by subsidies.
“We, therefore, align with the 4.7 percent to 6 percent GDP growth range projected by the CBN and Financial Derivative Company. Indeed, our modelling of the Nigerian production and fiscal spheres indicates a possible 5.4 percent GDP growth in 2025.
“This is on the back of the sustained decline in inflation rate, reduced exchange rates volatility, declining interest rates through the year, continued foreign portfolio and foreign direct investments into the country, “it added.
IMPI also noted that it was not surprised that Nigeria’s 3.40 percent full year GDP growth is higher than the projections of global institutions and financial analysts.
“The value of Nigeria’s 2024 aggregate outputs of both goodsg and services as reflected in the year’s Gross Domestic Product is a complete affirmation of the impact of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms which started on 29th May, 2023.
“At 3.40 percent full year 2024 GDP growth, the performance of the Nigerian economy in the 12 months of last year beats projections made by global institutions and experts.
“The 2024 GDP growth in the value of the economy is an increase of 0.66 percent from the 2.74 percent recorded in 2023. The 2024 aggregate GDP figure is driven by the 3.84 percent economic performance recorded in the fourth quarter of the year.
“In view of various projections on GDP’s potential growth at the beginning of every fiscal year, we collated and compared the National Bureau of Statistics issued real GDP figure for 2024 with the projections made by global institutions that include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, PWC (Price Waterhouse and Cooper) and the Financial Derivative Company for Nigeria.
“Our analysis showed that the IMF, after three projections adjustment beginning from a low of 2.9 percent GDP 2024, it settled for a 3.30 percent projected growth. However, like the World Bank, which projected the economy to grow by the same 3.30 percent, this projection fell short of Nigeria’s 2024 actual real GDP growth by 1.10 percent
“In the same vein, Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company aligned with the IMF and World Bank projections, stating that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.30 percent in 2024.
“PwC, one of the top four global accounting power houses, availed the Nigerian economy a lower level benefit of the doubt when it projected that the country’s GDP will grow marginally by 3.1%.
“As things turned out, all the global institutions missed their projections of Nigeria’s economic growth in 2024 by more than one percentage point on the down side, however, the GDP projection by the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Central Bank of Nigeria did not match the 3.76 percent GDP projected growth by both the FGN and the CBN for 2024,”it added.
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