POLICY STATEMENT O31 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI): UNRAVELLING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S DESIGNATION OF NIGERIA AS A COUNTRY OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
On February 7, 2023, a statement issued by the United States of America’s State Department affirmed, for the umpteenth time, that, after a careful review, the Secretary of State had concluded that Nigeria did not meet the legal threshold for designation as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998.
This conclusion has been the standard response to a plethora of petitions seeking to designate Nigeria as a country of concern every year, beginning in 2009.
Our investigation unearthed volumes of specious data profiling terrorists’ killings following attacks on Christian communities or places of worship in Nigeria.
In line with its cautionary approach, the American government in those years put some of the data to the litmus test. What emerged was a sheer collection of manufactured figures of Christian killings in Nigeria, put together in a bid to nail the Nigerian government, something akin to calling a dog a bad name to hang it.
US State Department officials saw through the campaign of calumny and the deployment of false data to justify Nigeria’s designation on the CPC list. However, just as in the present case, President Trump deviated from the historically principled and well-considered stance of the State Department by designating Nigeria as a CPC in December 2020.
Ironically, the then US Ambassador to Nigeria, Mary Beth Leonard, had denied the religious nature of the conflicts, as circulated by a heavily-funded lobby of Americans and Nigeria-based Christian Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and other vested interests.
Denouncing the insinuation of genocide against Christians in Nigeria, the Ambassador had explained that at the heart of the conflicts were issues around resource control.
In her July 17, 2019, confirmation hearing, Ambassador Leonard also referred to the carnage in Nigeria’s Middle Belt as “banditry and inter-communal conflict” and “escalating farmer-herder and inter-communal conflict frequently based on resource competition.”
This overview of the possible causes of conflicts and killings in the Middle Belt appropriately explained the nature of the killings in that region, away from the religious underpinnings often erroneously and deliberately attributed to the conflict by NGOs and some Christian bodies that routinely produce statistics of killings attributed to religion.
We note that in 2019, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reported a 39.1% decrease in terrorism deaths in Nigeria, from 2,043 in 2018 to 1,245 in 2019. The decline in fatalities, according to GTI, was primarily due to a fall in violence linked to Fulani extremists, despite a slight increase in common killings, the lowest since 2011.
The GTI data is validated by Statista.com (Sasu, 2024). Though this 2019 terrorism data is in the public domain, an Onitsha-based International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), a Nigerian Human Rights NGO in Anambra State, claimed there were between 1,000 and 1,200 “Christian deaths” in the same year.
Another data contained in the ‘Ninth Annual Report on Lethal Violence in Nigeria’, which covers the period between January 1 and December 31, 2019, was collected by Vitus Nwankwo Ukoji, with the help of Abiola Victoria Ayodokun and Victor Chinedu Eze of the University of Ibadan, wherein the researchers submitted that fatalities from lethal incidents inched up by 5.6% in 2019 after a 1.4% decline. According to the Report, there were 11,277 violent deaths in 2019.
The import here is that Intersociety attributed virtually all reported fatalities to Christian deaths. This is an example of the deliberate inflation of data regarding killings in Nigeria to, in part, inflame divisive passion among the people, and to justify the designation of the country as a CPC by the American Government.
The groups momentarily had their way in 2020, when, against all statistical sequences, indicating a reduction in terrorism-related killings, especially those linked to religious conflicts, Mr Trump, in the fourth year of his first term, declared and designated Nigeria as a CPC. It was a very questionable decision, given the declining number of terrorism-related deaths.
In 2020, Nigeria saw a significant reduction in terrorism-related fatalities, dropping to 1,245 from 2,043 in 2019, which represents a decrease from its peak in 2014. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2020, released in early 2021, noted the most significant reduction in deaths in Nigeria after Afghanistan, mainly due to a decrease in fatalities attributed to Fulani extremists.
Fallacy of jaundiced data
We are concerned about the inauspicious propagation of terrorism-related deaths in a singular religious conflict situation. However, for starters, we must acknowledge the sensitivity of this subject matter as it affects lives. For us, no single life is deserving of being extinguished for any reason. In the same vein, it is immoral to concoct all manner of death-related data to justify a point of view.
The circulation of falsehoods in the campaign to designate Nigeria a CPC jurisdiction has become a worrisome trend. Our findings showed that it became a tool exploited by both Nigerian and foreign-based NGOs, as well as other vested interests, to drive their demands.
To properly benchmark our comparative data, we have adopted data curated by the Australia-based Institute for Economics & Peace, which produces the Annual Global Terrorism Index. The GTI produces a composite score to provide an ordinal ranking of countries on the impact of terrorism.
The GTI scores each country on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 represents no impact from terrorism and 10 describes the highest measurable impact. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a comprehensive study analysing the effects of terrorism on 163 countries, which account for 7 per cent of the world’s population. It reports on global terrorism trends and the associated number of deaths.
Indeed, terrorism can be classified by its motivations, methods, or scope. Typical classifications include political terrorism, which is broken down into categories like revolutionary, nationalist-separatist, left-wing, and right-wing terrorism; religious terrorism, driven by extremist religious ideologies; and state-sponsored terrorism, which involves government support for terrorist groups.
Other types include international (transcending national borders) and domestic (within a country’s borders), based on scope and location.
As expected, a legion of controversial data was also circulated on social media platforms. In contrast to the reduction in fatalities recorded by GTI in 2020, Abayomi and Igbanoi (2021) posited that based on data gathered between January and December, 2020, there was an average of two violent attacks and nine deaths daily across the nation. This, according to them, amounts to at least 60 attacks a month and over 720 for the year, and in turn, over 270 and 3,240 deaths monthly and the year, respectively.
One report stated that approximately 4,285 Christians were killed for their faith in Nigeria that year, accounting for about 90% of the global total of Christians killed for faith-based reasons. In character, Nigeria Watch.org, Nigeria recorded around 12,318 deaths from terrorism in 2020. According to the organisation, these deaths were the result of 2,677 lethal incidents.
The violence was attributed to the Boko Haram insurgency and banditry. None of these figures provides a basis for verification or validation.
Nonetheless, on December 2, 2020, in accordance with the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998, as amended, the US Secretary of State designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for having engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom, and announced a waiver of sanctions that accompany designation in the “important national interest of the United States.”
Apparently, the decision was deficient in logic and procedure, as the succeeding President Biden administration removed Nigeria’s CPC designation less than a year later, in November 2021. That brought a closure to the first attempt by Mr Trump to designate Nigeria a CPC state.
Tracking the smear campaign
Subsequently, the campaign to slam anew the CPC status on Nigeria began apace. On January 31, 2023, Congressman Chris Smith introduced a resolution in the House of Representatives to this effect, with bipartisan support. In response, on 7 February 2023, a State Department spokesperson said, again, that “after careful review,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken decided not to put Nigeria back on the list of offenders of religious liberty.
Long before this official response, merchants of tainted data had populated the social media space with obtrusive figures. The International Society for the Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) reported that 5,068 Christians were massacred in Nigeria in 2022, while Open Doors’ 2023 World Watch List reported that 5,014 Christians were killed for their faith in Nigeria in 2022, more than in the rest of the world combined.
Those figures definitely did not portray the reality on the ground.
In contrast to the figures being bandied by these NGOs, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2022 noted that there were 6,701 deaths from terrorism globally, a 9% decrease from the previous year and 38% lower than the 2015 peak. The number of terrorism incidents globally also fell by nearly 28%, from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022, while
deaths in Nigeria dropped to 392 in 2022, the lowest level since 2011.
However, fatalities increased by 34 per cent in 2023 to 533, and further to 565 in 2024, but not anywhere near the inflated figures generated by Intersociety, which reported that 8,222 Christians were killed in Nigeria in the 12 months between January 1, 2023, and January 1, 2024, describing it as the “deadliest in recent years”. Open Doors also reported that 82% of the 4,998 Christians killed globally for faith-related reasons in 2023 occurred in Nigeria, while the Observatory of Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) recorded 1,637 deaths of Christians between April and June 2023 alone.
The trend continued in 2024 with this same set of advocacy groups providing higher figures for faith-related killings. A report from Open Doors claimed that 3,100 Christians were killed in Nigeria in 2024.
According to the group, this made it the country with the most Christians killed globally for faith-based reasons that year.
Another source published in August 2024 documented at least 7,087 Christians massacred in the first 220 days of the year (Humanangle.com, 2025).
However, the Global Terrorism Index reported a fatality figure of 565 for 2024. This speaks to the industry of falsehood underpinning the advocacy to get Nigeria redesignated as a CPC.
Yet, while we condemn any loss of life, the practical reality is that the data provided by GTI and Statista cannot, by any stretch of imagination, be described as genocide.
Based on this background, we find it challenging to accept US President Trump’s decision to designate Nigeria as a CPC based on fictitious data circulated by a collection of NGOs.
We expect the US to verify and validate any data presented to President Trump before using it to make a decision.
Trump’s decision was based on false data
We submit in this regard that Mr Trump must either be of an impulsive disposition or he deliberately wants to engage in a red herring to divert attention from the real intent of the redesignation of Nigeria as a CPC.
To be impulsive would mean that Mr Trump consumes this Trojan data with such seriousness as to base a state policy on unverified data. However, to throw a red herring suggests that the US President may be holding a transactional card close to his chest.
While the real intent would soon unfold, we think that Mr Trump may want to hasten the crystallisation of the trade opportunities available in Nigeria for the American military equipment manufacturing sector.
This is possibly the case because none of the listed sanctions in the International Religious Freedom Act bears any resemblance to military actions, as claimed by the American President in the Nigerian situation.
Is a transaction in the mix?
Our position is further reinforced by the American government’s call to its military hardware and software manufacturing sector to explore opportunities available in Nigeria for the supply of sophisticated tools and systems, such as surveillance technology, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and advanced detection equipment.
Indeed, the Nigerian federal government, under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has invested heavily in enhancing security measures in response to the prevailing security challenges confronting the country.
For instance, Nigeria’s military modernisation efforts include the acquisition of 12 AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters from the US, a $455 million deal aimed at strengthening counterinsurgency capabilities.
These helicopters are part of broader investments in military equipment and technology, intended to aid in tackling terrorism, piracy, and other forms of violent crimes across the nation, enhancing Nigeria’s ability to collaborate with international partners on security initiatives.
In addition, Nigeria completed a historic $346 million arms deal with the United States in August 2025, marking the largest single purchase of military hardware in recent times.
The contract involves more than 1,000 MK-82 500-pound bombs, over 5,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rounds, programmable fuzes, airfoil groups, and extensive logistical and technical assistance. The action will complement the existing counterinsurgency operations that Nigeria has been waging against Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which are still operational in some northern states.
These are clear indications of Nigeria’s seriousness in tackling insecurity by purchasing sophisticated military equipment from the United States.
We further note with interest the observation by the US Commerce Department that cybersecurity is increasingly critical in Nigeria, especially as the country’s financial and telecommunications sectors expand.
It explained that Nigerian financial institutions, government agencies, and corporations managing large volumes of data are frequent targets for cybercriminals, with incidents such as phishing, ransomware attacks, and online fraud becoming increasingly common.
Thus, the rise of digital banking and mobile financial services has also led to intensified efforts to protect user data and financial transactions.
To counter this, according to the US Commerce Department, Nigerian businesses and institutions are investing in cybersecurity measures, with a focus on areas such as threat intelligence, employee training, and stronger data protection frameworks.
Government agencies, such as the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), are also enhancing regulations and encouraging local firms to adopt cybersecurity best practices to mitigate risks.
Therefore, the safety and security sector in Nigeria, as considered by the US Commerce Department, has seen substantial growth, with security equipment and specialised training emerging as key subsectors.
It noted further that US companies remain preferred suppliers for advanced security technology, with Nigerian public and private stakeholders sourcing military jets, uncrewed aerial vehicles, explosive detection tools, surveillance systems, and covert cameras primarily from US manufacturers.
Highlighting other military ware related opportunities in Nigeria, the US Commerce Department also explained that there is also a rising demand for surveillance equipment among Nigerian state governments, especially for aerial monitoring of borders and forests.
Additionally, opportunities for US companies to provide security training services have expanded to include Nigerian government agencies, private security firms, and corporate security teams.
These firms, according to the Department, can engage through direct sales or participate in public tenders published by relevant agencies, which are accessible via the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP).
On this count, the Commerce Department declared that because US companies maintain a strong competitive edge in supplying advanced security equipment to Nigerian entities, driven by a reputation for high-quality and reliable technology, there are substantial opportunities for these companies to provide the Nigerian government with sophisticated tools and systems, such as surveillance technology, unmanned aerial vehicles, and advanced detection equipment.
It averred that procurement is facilitated through government tenders, enabling US firms to supply security resources that align with Nigeria’s increasing demand for advanced security solutions.
There is also another possible explanation for Mr Trump’s decision to designate Nigeria a CPC. This angle is in connection with his Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, who reportedly has a long-term relationship with elements of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).
She was co-chair of a lobbying firm hired by IPOB in 2019, and the two parties had extensively worked together, according to records.
According to a report by Foreignlobby.com in 2021, IPOB has a lobbying contract with Mercury Public Affairs, a company with links to Ms Wiles. A further probe into her records revealed that IPOB hired Wiles’ firm to lobby the US Congress and the State Department on the “promotion of human rights and democracy” in Nigeria.
The engagement, which began in October 2019, is valued at $85,000 per month; however, the firm only disclosed $254,000 in payments to the US Department of Justice for that year. According to media reports, the emergence of Donald Trump as the winner of the US presidential election intensified hope of an independent nation known as Biafra.
The jubilation that greeted Nigeria’s designation as CPC by some Nigerians in the diaspora with strong links to IPOB establishes a possible ‘voice of Jacob, but hands of Esau’ scenario in the saga.
Conclusion
Our submission is that this type of aggression, stemming from Nigeria’s redesignation as a CPC, is not the appropriate response to the prevailing situation in the country.
The two jurisdictions are mutually in need of each other in combating terrorism, especially as Nigeria’s federal administration has, within 24 months, expended $801 million in acquiring US-made military hardware to stem the tide of insurgency and terrorism in the country.
This is a clear demonstration of the Nigerian government’s political will to combat terrorism and safeguard the lives of Nigerians wherever they may be, as well as to guarantee unrestricted religious freedom and practices.
The critical thing, for us, is that Nigeria needs America as much as America needs Nigeria in combating terrorism in the Sahel, as both countries have shared experiences.
Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD
Chairman,
Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
November, 2025
