POLICY STATEMENT O34 BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI)
Progressivism: The Place of Ideology in Tinubu’s Management of Nigeria’s
Economy
Introduction:
Progressivism in government encompasses the two critical aspects of governance that idealise economic and political development in a jurisdiction. It is, therefore, at once, a political philosophy and social reform movement that focuses on advancing the public good through government actions and improving the human condition through government regulation, social protection and the maintenance of public good.
In the United States of America (USA), the progressive movement began in earnest after the Civil War, but gained serious momentum starting in the early 20th century out of the perceived injustices brought about by the “Gilded Age.” The Gilded Age (approx. 1870–1900) was a period of rapid industrialisation, urbanisation, and unprecedented wealth inequality in the United States, famously termed by Mark Twain to describe a time of glittering technological progress.
The period, however, masked underlying corruption and poverty. It saw the rise of monopolistic “robber barons,” massive immigration, and significant westward expansion.
The then US President Theodore Roosevelt, perhaps, the first true progressive politician in the annals of America’s politics, responded to the rot and decimation of public values coming on the heels of the Gilded Age with his “Square Deal”.
The Square Deal reflected his three major goals for addressing the degenerate state of the American system. It includes; conservation of natural resources, corporate law, and consumer protection. These three demands are often referred to as the “three C’s” of Roosevelt’s Square Deal. Thus, it aimed at helping middle-class citizens and involved attacking plutocracy and bad trust while at the same time protecting businesses from the most extreme demands of organised labour.
Like the USA, Nigeria has had periods of decadent public value and normalisation of profligacy in high offices. Before the economic reforms initiated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023, the Nigerian economy was characterised by a deeply entrenched oligarchy, where a small group of political elites, military officers, and business moguls controlled state resources.
This structure was sustained by a patronage system, particularly in the oil sector, which benefited a select few while the majority of the population faced poverty, with 63 per cent (about 133 million people) living in multidimensional poverty by 2022.
The Pre-Tinubu Economic Oligarchy
The “pre-reform” economic landscape was defined by several key oligarchic and structural features: A significant portion of the oligarchy benefited from the fuel subsidy system, which was described as being rife with corruption and used as a “feeding bottle” for a select few. The existence of multiple exchange rate windows allowed “FX subsidy merchants” to exploit the gap between official and parallel market rates, effectively draining government finances. Economic power was heavily concentrated in the petroleum industry, with access to oil revenues controlled by those in power and their close associates.
By the time Tinubu took office, Nigeria was spending approximately 97 percent of its total revenue on debt servicing, a situation described as “disastrous”.
Beyond the oligarchy’s capture of the Nigerian state, we note the obvious decimation of the nation’s fiscal substance before the coming of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the federal administration in 2015. Data show that Nigeria’s export profile changed significantly after 2014, resetting to a lower range that has persisted despite periodic recoveries. Nigeria reached a peak crude oil and gas export value of $93.89 billion in 2011, the highest in the dataset.
Between 2008 and 2014, the country recorded an average annual export value of about $81billion, reflecting the strength of the early 2010s oil cycle. However, from 2015 to 2024, the average annual export value fell to approximately $45 billion, representing a 44 percent decline compared to the earlier period. As of 2014, the export value stood at $76.51 billion before dropping to $32.03 billion in 2016, a decline of about 58.14 percent in two years.
From the 2011 peak of $93.89 billion to the 2020 low of $31.40 billion, export value fell by 66.56 percent. This has huge implications for federally shared revenue and the general economic well-being of the country and its people in the three-tier federal system.
At this time, however, we can submit with much assertion that the federal administration has, indeed, taken Nigeria out of the woods, evidenced by a turnaround economy that shows an indication of stability while unlocking the stranglehold of the oligarchs on the nation’s economy.
To support our assertion of an ideology-based economic turnaround, we itemise some of the key tools of progressivism that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led federal administration has deployed to accomplish the present feat.
These include fiscal policy and taxation, redistributive spending, estate and wealth taxes, labour and wealth protection, monetary and financial reforms, infrastructural development, and public investment and ownership.
Surge in Federation Allocations
A major indicator of Nigeria’s revamped economy is the surge in federally shared revenue. Allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in 2025 experienced a significant surge, with the three tiers of government sharing over ₦33.27 trillion in the first eleven months, a 30 per cent increase over the same period in 2024.
This growth, driven by subsidy removal and exchange rate reforms, included record monthly distributions, such as ₦3.64 trillion in September 2025, significantly boosting subnational revenue.
Macroeconomic Stability
Inflation, while still in double digits, has dropped by over half from a peak of 34.6 percent in November 2024 to 15.10 percent in January 2026, reflecting over nine months of consistent disinflation. This has largely restored real purchasing power for households and businesses, with Nigerians now reaping the benefits of the exchange rate unification. We continue to observe a huge contraction in the gap between the official and parallel market rates which has shrunk from 60 to 2 percent with the naira as of Tuesday, February 24, 2026, trading at approximately ₦1,349.24 to the US Dollar in the official market and between ₦1,355 and ₦1,420 in the parallel (black) market.
The naira is rated the world’s second-best performing currency this year with a more than 7 percent gain against the dollar.
Nigeria’s Changing Hydrocarbon Export Mix
Recent data suggest that while crude oil remains the dominant export product, Nigeria’s hydrocarbon export mix may be gradually evolving. Crude oil exports for January to September 2025 totalled $24.7 billion, while gas exports stood at $8.27 billion over the same period, and petroleum product exports reached $4.15 billion. Though total hydrocarbon exports for the period amounted to $37.1billion, gas and petroleum product exports accounted for a more meaningful share of exports than in earlier years.
Overall, Nigeria’s crude oil export story since 2014 has continued to reflect a structural adjustment rather than a temporary downturn.
Nigeria Stock Market Star Performance
Nigerian stocks have delivered the world’s second-best dollar returns this year, climbing 31 percent in 2026 and recovering $21 billion in market value lost following a sharp naira devaluation in 2024. The rally far outpaces the 11 percent gain in the broader emerging-market index and the 6.4 percent advance in a gauge of frontier-market stocks.
Total market capitalisation on the Lagos Exchange now stands at about $84 billion, roughly 58 percent higher than before the naira’s collapse.
Foreign participation has surged alongside the rally. Data from the Nigerian Exchange Group show that non-Nigerian trading in local equities reached a 19-year high in 2025, with transactions tripling to 2.65 trillion naira ($1.97 billion) from 852 billion naira the previous year.
Record Export Figures
Nigeria’s 2025 export figures underscore the strengthening of the naira. Nigeria’s total exports in the first nine months of 2025 outpaced the corresponding period of 2024 by $3.76bn. The figures feed into the improving local currency value. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Statistics (December 2025) showed that the country’s total exports in the first nine months of 2025 rose to $44.06bn, an improvement over the $40.29bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The increased exports figure is indicative of positive momentum for the economy.
Nigeria’s food inflation drops to its lowest in over 14 years
Nigeria’s food inflation rate eased to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, marking its first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest level in 174 months. The January 2026 CPI report shows food inflation declined from 29.63 percent recorded in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, a sharp 20.73 percentage point year-on-year drop.
The 8.89 percent reading is the first time food inflation has fallen below 10 percent since May 2015, when it stood at 9.78 percent. January 2026, therefore, ends a stretch of more than 10 years of persistent double-digit food inflation. More significantly, the January figure is the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation was 8.66 percent
FX for business travels soar by 366 percent to $672m. More Nigerians are gaining access to foreign exchange. business travels increased by 366 percent to $672.27m in the first nine months of 2025, up from $144.19m recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. Business travel refers to expenditures made by Nigerian residents when they travel abroad for business purposes, such as attending meetings, conferences, training sessions, or other work-related activities.
Data from the CBN indicate that travelers had more access to FX for business trips in the period under review. In turn, this reflected stronger international business engagements. The development signaled renewed business confidence and improved foreign exchange stability.
Taxation as a Tool for Redistribution of Wealth
Land, buildings, and rent are now fully exempted from Value Added Tax (VAT) under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025. The new law, which has already commenced, was designed to reduce the cost of housing, encourage investment in real estate, and provide relief for tenants and small businesses across the country. Individuals buying land or completed buildings will no longer pay VAT on such transactions. The exemption also applies to rent, making both residential and commercial rent completely free from VAT. Removal of VAT on land, building, and rent is expected to lower the overall cost of property transactions and ease the financial burden on Nigerians seeking accommodation.
The law provides direct rent relief which will increase individual’s disposable income. In this regard, individuals can claim rent relief of up to N500,000, capped at 20 per cent of their annual rent and helping low-income earners have more money to spend, and ease the pressure of rising accommodation costs.
In addition, lease agreements with an annual value below N10 million, or ten times the annual minimum wage, are exempt from stamp duty which will reduce the cost of formal tenancy agreements, particularly for small businesses and ordinary Nigerians.
Again, individuals will no longer pay Capital Gains Tax (CGT) when they dispose of a dwelling house or have an interest in one. This exemption will encourage more investment in residential property. This is besides the fact that small companies will benefit from zero per cent Companies Income Tax (CIT). Such companies will also be exempt from charging VAT and will not have Withholding Tax (WHT) deducted from their invoices and payments. This will give small contractors and suppliers more room to grow.
Interest income earned from Federal Government of Nigeria bonds, Sukuk, and state government bonds are exempted from income tax and withholding tax. Capital gains arising from the disposal of these securities are also exempt following the repeal of the stand-alone Capital Gains Tax Act.
The transfer or sale of government bonds remains exempt from VAT, while pension fund investments in government securities continue to enjoy statutory protection.
The Historic ASUU/FG Rapprochement
The Federal Government has asked universities to commence the payment of the tax-free Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance across the country. This was in fulfillment of the agreement reached between the Federal Government and university lecturers recently.
The allowance, which ranges from a little over N1million annually for graduate assistants and assistant lecturers to over N3million for professors, is expected to bump up the take-home pay of university teachers. All federal universities were to begin the payment of the Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance (CATA) to academic staff, even as the 2026 budget approval process continues. The tax-free allowance was part of the executed FGN-ASUU 2025 Agreement.
The Consolidated Academic Tolls Allowance (CATA) is a specific financial component of the salary structure for University Academic Staff in Nigeria. It was done by the Tinubu administration as a job-specific, tax-exempt allowance that supports the core research, teaching, and intellectual activities of university academics.
With the new FG agreement with university teachers, CATA is part of a dual salary structure. Now, university academic staff salaries are split into two main parts, the CONUASS (Consolidated University Academic Staff Salary): The base salary, which is subject to standard tax rules and CATA (Consolidated Academic Tools Allowance): A separate, additional allowance intended for work-related tools and activities.
Nigeria’s Stable Economy Now Benefits from Multiplier and Cyclical Effects
The multiplier effect describes how an initial injection of spending (e.g., government investment) triggers a chain reaction of consumption, leading to a total increase in GDP larger than the initial amount. This process drives the cyclical nature of the economy, as successive rounds of spending and income generation amplify boom. This mechanism interprets to one person’s spending becoming another’s income, which is then re-spent in subsequent rounds. These aggregate in prosperity scenarios enabled by positive injections that are reflected in increased exports and investments which create a multiplier effect that propels the economy into a boom.
The multiplier is a crucial concept for understanding how fiscal policies such as government stimulus and tax exemptions can be used to boost the overall economy.
Conclusion
We hereby submit that the now turnaround Nigerian economy is benefitting from targeted fiscal policies to drive economic expansion and individual prosperity. This, essentially, captures the essence of economic progressivism as an ideological template for economic reformation to address inequality as the basis for sovereign economic growth, improved citizens’ socio-economic standing and impactful development.
We further posit that President Tinubu has accomplished an impressive turnaround as a first step to exponentially grow the national economy which will reflect in the critical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita data of Nigerians.
Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, PhD
Chairman,
Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
February, 2026
